Can't Stop の確率
Can't Stop の確率とか求めた。
https://boardgamearena.com/gamepanel?game=cantstop
確率が大きい順
連続してサイコロをふれる回数のうち、確率 以上のうち最大のものも記載(右端)。
目 | 目 | 目 | 確率 | 回数 |
---|---|---|---|---|
6 | 7 | 8 | 0.9197530864197531 | 8 |
5 | 7 | 8 | 0.9143518518518519 | 7 |
6 | 7 | 9 | 0.9143518518518519 | 7 |
4 | 6 | 8 | 0.9112654320987654 | 7 |
6 | 8 | 10 | 0.9112654320987654 | 7 |
4 | 7 | 8 | 0.9027777777777778 | 6 |
6 | 7 | 10 | 0.9027777777777778 | 6 |
5 | 6 | 8 | 0.8950617283950617 | 6 |
6 | 8 | 9 | 0.8950617283950617 | 6 |
3 | 7 | 8 | 0.8927469135802469 | 6 |
4 | 7 | 9 | 0.8927469135802469 | 6 |
5 | 7 | 10 | 0.8927469135802469 | 6 |
6 | 7 | 11 | 0.8927469135802469 | 6 |
2 | 7 | 8 | 0.8904320987654321 | 5 |
6 | 7 | 12 | 0.8904320987654321 | 5 |
5 | 6 | 7 | 0.8865740740740741 | 5 |
7 | 8 | 9 | 0.8865740740740741 | 5 |
4 | 6 | 7 | 0.8858024691358025 | 5 |
7 | 8 | 10 | 0.8858024691358025 | 5 |
2 | 6 | 8 | 0.8834876543209876 | 5 |
4 | 6 | 10 | 0.8834876543209876 | 5 |
4 | 8 | 10 | 0.8834876543209876 | 5 |
6 | 8 | 12 | 0.8834876543209876 | 5 |
4 | 7 | 10 | 0.8765432098765432 | 5 |
5 | 6 | 9 | 0.8665123456790124 | 4 |
5 | 8 | 9 | 0.8665123456790124 | 4 |
3 | 6 | 7 | 0.8649691358024691 | 4 |
7 | 8 | 11 | 0.8649691358024691 | 4 |
2 | 6 | 7 | 0.8641975308641975 | 4 |
4 | 6 | 9 | 0.8641975308641975 | 4 |
5 | 8 | 10 | 0.8641975308641975 | 4 |
7 | 8 | 12 | 0.8641975308641975 | 4 |
4 | 8 | 9 | 0.8626543209876543 | 4 |
5 | 6 | 10 | 0.8626543209876543 | 4 |
3 | 6 | 8 | 0.8533950617283951 | 4 |
5 | 7 | 9 | 0.8533950617283951 | 4 |
6 | 8 | 11 | 0.8533950617283951 | 4 |
4 | 5 | 7 | 0.8479938271604939 | 4 |
7 | 9 | 10 | 0.8479938271604939 | 4 |
4 | 5 | 8 | 0.845679012345679 | 4 |
6 | 9 | 10 | 0.845679012345679 | 4 |
3 | 7 | 9 | 0.8425925925925926 | 4 |
5 | 7 | 11 | 0.8425925925925926 | 4 |
2 | 7 | 9 | 0.8356481481481481 | 3 |
3 | 7 | 10 | 0.8356481481481481 | 3 |
3 | 8 | 9 | 0.8356481481481481 | 3 |
4 | 7 | 11 | 0.8356481481481481 | 3 |
5 | 6 | 11 | 0.8356481481481481 | 3 |
5 | 7 | 12 | 0.8356481481481481 | 3 |
2 | 6 | 9 | 0.8333333333333334 | 3 |
2 | 7 | 10 | 0.8333333333333334 | 3 |
3 | 8 | 10 | 0.8333333333333334 | 3 |
4 | 6 | 11 | 0.8333333333333334 | 3 |
4 | 7 | 12 | 0.8333333333333334 | 3 |
5 | 8 | 12 | 0.8333333333333334 | 3 |
2 | 5 | 8 | 0.8287037037037037 | 3 |
6 | 9 | 12 | 0.8287037037037037 | 3 |
3 | 6 | 9 | 0.8263888888888888 | 3 |
5 | 8 | 11 | 0.8263888888888888 | 3 |
2 | 8 | 9 | 0.8225308641975309 | 3 |
3 | 6 | 10 | 0.8225308641975309 | 3 |
4 | 5 | 10 | 0.8225308641975309 | 3 |
4 | 8 | 11 | 0.8225308641975309 | 3 |
4 | 9 | 10 | 0.8225308641975309 | 3 |
5 | 6 | 12 | 0.8225308641975309 | 3 |
2 | 4 | 8 | 0.8155864197530864 | 3 |
2 | 8 | 10 | 0.8155864197530864 | 3 |
4 | 6 | 12 | 0.8155864197530864 | 3 |
6 | 10 | 12 | 0.8155864197530864 | 3 |
2 | 6 | 10 | 0.8109567901234568 | 3 |
4 | 8 | 12 | 0.8109567901234568 | 3 |
2 | 5 | 7 | 0.8094135802469136 | 3 |
7 | 9 | 12 | 0.8094135802469136 | 3 |
3 | 5 | 8 | 0.8078703703703703 | 3 |
6 | 9 | 11 | 0.8078703703703703 | 3 |
2 | 4 | 7 | 0.8070987654320988 | 3 |
7 | 10 | 12 | 0.8070987654320988 | 3 |
4 | 5 | 9 | 0.7986111111111112 | 3 |
5 | 9 | 10 | 0.7986111111111112 | 3 |
3 | 4 | 8 | 0.7962962962962963 | 3 |
4 | 5 | 6 | 0.7962962962962963 | 3 |
6 | 10 | 11 | 0.7962962962962963 | 3 |
8 | 9 | 10 | 0.7962962962962963 | 3 |
3 | 4 | 7 | 0.7908950617283951 | 2 |
7 | 10 | 11 | 0.7908950617283951 | 2 |
3 | 5 | 7 | 0.7870370370370371 | 2 |
7 | 9 | 11 | 0.7870370370370371 | 2 |
2 | 7 | 12 | 0.7808641975308642 | 2 |
2 | 7 | 11 | 0.7785493827160493 | 2 |
3 | 4 | 9 | 0.7785493827160493 | 2 |
3 | 7 | 12 | 0.7785493827160493 | 2 |
3 | 9 | 10 | 0.7785493827160493 | 2 |
4 | 5 | 11 | 0.7785493827160493 | 2 |
5 | 10 | 11 | 0.7785493827160493 | 2 |
3 | 5 | 9 | 0.7762345679012346 | 2 |
3 | 7 | 11 | 0.7762345679012346 | 2 |
5 | 9 | 11 | 0.7762345679012346 | 2 |
3 | 5 | 6 | 0.7708333333333334 | 2 |
8 | 9 | 11 | 0.7708333333333334 | 2 |
2 | 5 | 6 | 0.7700617283950617 | 2 |
8 | 9 | 12 | 0.7700617283950617 | 2 |
2 | 5 | 9 | 0.7600308641975309 | 2 |
5 | 9 | 12 | 0.7600308641975309 | 2 |
2 | 4 | 6 | 0.7584876543209876 | 2 |
3 | 5 | 10 | 0.7584876543209876 | 2 |
3 | 6 | 11 | 0.7584876543209876 | 2 |
3 | 8 | 11 | 0.7584876543209876 | 2 |
4 | 9 | 11 | 0.7584876543209876 | 2 |
8 | 10 | 12 | 0.7584876543209876 | 2 |
2 | 3 | 8 | 0.7561728395061729 | 2 |
2 | 4 | 9 | 0.7561728395061729 | 2 |
2 | 5 | 10 | 0.7561728395061729 | 2 |
2 | 6 | 11 | 0.7561728395061729 | 2 |
3 | 4 | 10 | 0.7561728395061729 | 2 |
3 | 8 | 12 | 0.7561728395061729 | 2 |
4 | 9 | 12 | 0.7561728395061729 | 2 |
4 | 10 | 11 | 0.7561728395061729 | 2 |
5 | 10 | 12 | 0.7561728395061729 | 2 |
6 | 11 | 12 | 0.7561728395061729 | 2 |
2 | 3 | 7 | 0.7523148148148148 | 2 |
7 | 11 | 12 | 0.7523148148148148 | 2 |
3 | 4 | 6 | 0.7422839506172839 | 2 |
8 | 10 | 11 | 0.7422839506172839 | 2 |
2 | 4 | 10 | 0.7384259259259259 | 2 |
2 | 6 | 12 | 0.7384259259259259 | 2 |
2 | 8 | 12 | 0.7384259259259259 | 2 |
4 | 10 | 12 | 0.7384259259259259 | 2 |
2 | 8 | 11 | 0.7361111111111112 | 2 |
3 | 6 | 12 | 0.7361111111111112 | 2 |
2 | 3 | 9 | 0.7121913580246914 | 2 |
2 | 5 | 11 | 0.7121913580246914 | 2 |
3 | 9 | 12 | 0.7121913580246914 | 2 |
5 | 11 | 12 | 0.7121913580246914 | 2 |
2 | 9 | 10 | 0.7098765432098766 | 2 |
3 | 5 | 11 | 0.7098765432098766 | 2 |
3 | 9 | 11 | 0.7098765432098766 | 2 |
4 | 5 | 12 | 0.7098765432098766 | 2 |
2 | 3 | 6 | 0.683641975308642 | 1 |
8 | 11 | 12 | 0.683641975308642 | 1 |
3 | 4 | 5 | 0.6689814814814815 | 1 |
9 | 10 | 11 | 0.6689814814814815 | 1 |
2 | 4 | 5 | 0.6574074074074074 | 1 |
9 | 10 | 12 | 0.6574074074074074 | 1 |
3 | 4 | 11 | 0.6566358024691358 | 1 |
3 | 10 | 11 | 0.6566358024691358 | 1 |
2 | 9 | 11 | 0.6365740740740741 | 1 |
3 | 5 | 12 | 0.6365740740740741 | 1 |
2 | 3 | 10 | 0.6342592592592593 | 1 |
2 | 4 | 11 | 0.6342592592592593 | 1 |
2 | 5 | 12 | 0.6342592592592593 | 1 |
2 | 9 | 12 | 0.6342592592592593 | 1 |
3 | 10 | 12 | 0.6342592592592593 | 1 |
4 | 11 | 12 | 0.6342592592592593 | 1 |
2 | 3 | 5 | 0.5841049382716049 | 1 |
9 | 11 | 12 | 0.5841049382716049 | 1 |
2 | 10 | 11 | 0.5787037037037037 | 1 |
3 | 4 | 12 | 0.5787037037037037 | 1 |
2 | 4 | 12 | 0.5516975308641975 | 1 |
2 | 10 | 12 | 0.5516975308641975 | 1 |
2 | 3 | 11 | 0.5254629629629629 | 1 |
3 | 11 | 12 | 0.5254629629629629 | 1 |
2 | 3 | 4 | 0.5216049382716049 | 1 |
10 | 11 | 12 | 0.5216049382716049 | 1 |
2 | 3 | 12 | 0.4382716049382716 | 0 |
2 | 11 | 12 | 0.4382716049382716 | 0 |
導出方法
プログラム
from itertools import combinations, product def main(): Probability = [] for c in combinations( range(2,13), r=3): cnt = 0 for p in product( range(1,7), repeat=4): s = set() for w in combinations( range(4), r=2): s.add(p[w[0]]+p[w[1]]) for b in c: if b in s: cnt += 1 break Probability.append((cnt/(6**4), c)) Probability.sort(reverse=True,key=lambda x:x[0]) for probability in Probability: print(probability) Count = [] threshold = 0.5 for p, c in Probability: cnt = 0 q = p while q >= threshold: cnt += 1 q *= p Count.append((cnt, c)) Count.sort(reverse=True,key=lambda x:x[0]) for count in Count: print(count) if __name__ == '__main__': main()